The supply of MHP from Indonesia decreased, and the decline in nickel sulphate was limited. [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes]

4.16 Nickel Morning Meeting Summary Refined Nickel: SMM reported on April 15 that in the spot market, the price of SMM1# refined nickel was 123,850-127,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 125,475 yuan/mt, up 875 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,800-3,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,900 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium/discount for Russian nickel was 50-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 225 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened higher, with increased intraday volatility. By 11:30, the closing price was 124,180 yuan/mt, up 1.15% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Today, the nickel market continued to fluctuate upward, with spot prices rebounding, but the supply-demand imbalance and inventory pressure still constrained the upside room, and market sentiment remained cautious. Nickel Sulphate: On April 15, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,882 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 27,870-28,450 yuan/mt, and the average price fell slightly compared to the previous day. Cost side, based on the reduction of Indonesian high-ice nickel, the market demand for MHP increased, driving the MHP coefficient to continue rising. Recent floods in Indonesia have reduced MHP supply, further pushing up the MHP quotation coefficient. Supply side, due to lower production costs this week, some non-primary nickel salt smelters have lowered their quotations. Some primary nickel salt smelters have also loosened their quotations. Demand side, some precursor plants have not yet stocked up enough nickel salt inventory for April, and there is still procurement demand this week. However, their price acceptance has declined. Looking ahead, nickel sulphate prices are expected to decline due to weakening costs, but the decline is expected to be limited due to tight nickel salt supply and demand. Nickel Pig Iron: On April 15, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 991 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 3 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, current nickel ore inventory at domestic smelters is low, coupled with declining smelter profits, some companies are still in the maintenance period, and overall production remains low. In Indonesia, the local ore premium has remained stable in the short term, and the policy expectation of increasing the tax rate on nickel ore in Indonesia is strong, with strong cost support for smelters and stable production despite declining profits. Demand side, stainless steel prices have recently fallen sharply, market procurement sentiment is sluggish, social inventory has accumulated significantly, and stainless steel mills have weak demand for raw material procurement. In the short term, high-grade NPI prices remain under pressure. Stainless Steel: On April 15, with the easing of expectations regarding the impact of US tariff policies, the SS futures market rebounded, and prices gradually strengthened. As a result, the pessimistic sentiment in the stainless steel spot market has also eased to some extent. Last month, due to widespread market optimism, downstream stainless steel companies actively procured and stocked up, with procurement volumes far exceeding normal levels. However, the current market situation remains unclear, and many uncertain factors have made downstream companies more conservative in their procurement decisions, mainly digesting previous inventory, resulting in still sluggish market transactions. However, with strengthening sentiment and a reduction in low-priced futures sources, stainless steel spot prices have shown an upward trend. In the futures market, the most-traded contract 2506 further strengthened. At 10:30 am, SS2505 was quoted at 12,840 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the premium/discount for 304/2B spot was in the range of 430-630 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 8,300 yuan/mt; cold-rolled cut edge 304/2B coils in Wuxi averaged 13,200 yuan/mt, and in Foshan averaged 13,225 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were 23,650 yuan/mt, and in Foshan were 23,800 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in both regions were quoted at 22,900 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both 7,500 yuan/mt. Currently, the frequent and erratic fluctuations in US tariff policies have brought many uncertainties to the market. However, the stainless steel market remains strongly supported by costs, and the market sentiment of merchants and investors has gradually strengthened. In this context, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to hold up well. Going forward, market participants need to continue to closely monitor the actual details of the implementation of US tariff policies and the specific impact of these policies on various aspects of the market in order to adjust strategies in a timely manner and respond to market changes. Nickel Ore: Last week, the price of low-Ni, high-Fe ore in the Philippines remained stable. From a supply-demand perspective, the rainy season in the southern Philippines has basically ended, and shipments of medium-grade nickel ore from Surigao mines are expected to increase. On the demand side, after the introduction of Trump's tariff policy, nickel prices fell sharply, and domestic NPI prices fell during the week, reducing the acceptance of high-priced nickel ore. From an inventory perspective, domestic nickel pig iron plants have relatively low inventory, and just-in-time procurement demand still exists, but the acceptance of nickel ore prices is limited. Cost side, the FOB price of NI1.25% nickel ore in Zambales was $32 during the week, and the CIF cost remained above $43, but with the shift of shipments to Surigao, the FOB price may see a slight decline. Ocean freight rates fell slightly during the week, with rates from Surigao to Lianyungang, China, down $10-10.5/wmt. Overall, SMM expects that due to the combined effects of increased supply and falling downstream NPI prices, Philippine nickel ore prices may see a slight decline in the future. Last week, global nickel prices fell sharply, with Trump's tariff policy and PNBP policy once again fueling expectations of implementation, and multiple factors disturbing the market. However, as nickel ore orders for the first half of April have already been signed, transaction prices remained stable this week. This week's transaction prices in the Indonesian market: for pyrometallurgical ore, the delivery-to-factory price of Indonesia's local ore with 1.6% was about $51-52/wmt; for hydrometallurgical ore, the delivery-to-factory price of Indonesia's local ore with 1.3% was about $25-26/wmt, unchanged WoW. In April, the mainstream premium for nickel ore procurement in the Sulawesi Island park remained at $24-25, and the CIF price of hydrometallurgical ore remained stable but weak. From a supply perspective, for pyrometallurgical ore: on the supply side, the rainy season in Sulawesi Island has lasted for a long time, and rainfall remained frequent during the week, which has had a certain impact on the mining and transportation of nickel ore. However, overall, rainfall in Indonesia is expected to gradually decrease from April, and nickel ore supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, downstream NPI prices were impacted by the decline in nickel prices due to Trump's tariff policy, and NPI prices fell significantly during the week, weakening support for nickel ore prices. From an inventory perspective: raw material inventory at Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters is generally low, and just-in-time restocking is needed. Combined with the expectation of increased NPI production, demand support still exists. Overall, SMM expects that the supply of pyrometallurgical ore in Indonesia may continue to be tight. For hydrometallurgical ore: on the supply side, the tight supply of hydrometallurgical ore was not obvious during the week. On the demand side, the accident at the hydrometallurgical project in the Sulawesi park affected MHP demand in April. Overall, the supply of hydrometallurgical ore in the market is relatively sufficient. Policy side, Trump's tariff policy has impacted nickel prices, and the decline in downstream nickel product prices and the compression of profit margins may be transmitted to the nickel ore end in the future, leading to a decline in prices and premiums. However, Indonesia has once again fueled expectations of the implementation of the PNBP policy. If the policy is implemented next week, the increase in royalties will raise the sales cost of nickel ore, providing some support for nickel ore prices. Overall, the nickel ore market is currently mixed with both positive and negative factors, but the main theme of tight supply remains. Future price trends need to pay attention to the negotiations between companies and mines on "whether to lower the premium in late April" and the continuation of the rainy season in Indonesia. SMM expects that the price of Indonesia's local nickel ore will remain stable in the short term, with limited downside room.